Next election: 2012
District partisanship: Swing
Resident Incumbent(s): Dan Lungren
Expected/Probable Candidate(s):
- Ami Bera (D) - Physician
- Dan Lungren (R) - Member of Congress
- Alyson Huber (D) - Member, State Assembly
Analysis:
Physician Ami Bera, who tapped into a national fundraising base of Indo-Americans and progressive activists, made a strong showing against Dan Lungren in 2010. He has been running hard for a 2012 rematch, although he may have to contend with Democratic Assemblywoman Alyson Huber in the top-two primary to reach Lungren in the general.
It is one of only 4 swing congressional districts in California, and was won by Jerry Brown by 5 points in 2010. However, strong performance by a Democratic candidate for governor, particularly one running against Meg Whitman who was campaigning for pension reform, in this state-employee heavy district does not translate to an easy path for a Democrat challenging a Republican incumbent for Congress. Lungren, a former state attorney general, has strong name recognition and will be hard to beat without a strong, and currently unforeseeable, Democratic tide.
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