Senate Redistricting Musical Chairs

Assemblymember Cathleen Galgiani (D) formally announced that she will run for SD05, the Senate seat currently held by Republican Tom Berryhill and based in Stockton.  If Berryhill stays for the fight, it will be THE SENATE RACE of 2012.  Check out the digits:
Senate District 05
GOV '10: Brown (D) 47.2%, Whitman (R) 45.6%
US SEN '10: Fiorina (R) 48%, Boxer (D) 42%
AG '10: Cooley (R) 47%, Harris (D) 39%
PRES '08: Obama (D) 52.8%, McCain (R) 44.2%
Prop. 8 '08: 65% Yes, 35% No


If it was only that simple, we'd grab our popcorn and settle for a great fight.  But, next year, few things are simple. Tom Berryhill currently serves in SD14, an even-numbered district.  SD14 isn't up for election until 2014.  He won't stay in the new SD14 after 2014, as it's now a solid Dem majority-minority Latino district stretching from Fresno to Bakersfield. 
So, he has two choices if he wants to stay in the Senate.  He can run in SD05 against a strong moderate Dem Assemblywoman in a toss-up race or, relax for two years and then move to the conservative foothills-based SD08 in 2014.  He moved to run for SD14 originally, so that's not out of the question.  However, if he skips a 2012 showdown against Galgiani, he will need to end his moderate ways to avoid a conservative showdown against Assemblymember Linda Halderman  or someone else in SD08.  (If Leland Yee wins the mayoral race in November, the voters of San Francisco will choose who represents the foothills through 2014.  Most likely, it will be Fiona Ma, although there would be something fun in sending Tom Ammiano to one of the havens for Prop. 8 for a couple of years.)
Whitman trounced Brown by 17 points in SD08 (making it the 5th worst performing district for Brown), and T. Berryhill's reputation as one of the Republicans willing to negotiate with the governor on a tax extension didn't earn him a lot of love from the Tom McClintock-supporting base in this part of California.
It's a tough choice for Tom Berryhill, and, if he chooses to face Galgiani, we've got a helluva race on our hands.  If Berryhill decides not to run, look for Assemblymember Kristin Olsen to jump in, setting off an equally good fight.
Perhaps the best option for Berryhill is to take the free ride bid for CD09 next year against Congressman Jerry McNerney.  It's a tough seat for Berryhill, as Steve Cooley is the only Republican to outpoll a Dem in this seat in the last two cycles.  That said, it could be the perfect place for a free ride awaiting a Republican tide, with SD08 as the backup plan.

Source Lay/Resdistricting partners